ECLAC: Latin American and Caribbean trade to increase in 2021
Dec, 07, 2021 Posted by Ruth HollardWeek 202147
According to a report by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) released this Tuesday, December 7th, international trade in the region will end the year registering a significant recovery. The growth comes after a sharp drop observed last year. Recovery will not be the same in all countries, however, because of the uncertainty caused by the Coronavirus pandemic.
According to the 2021 Latin American and Caribbean International Trade Perspectives survey, there will be a 25% increase in the value of regional exports this year after a 10% drop in 2020.
This increase is driven by a 17% rise in export prices and an 8% expansion in export volume.
The expectation for 2022 is a10% increase in the value of regional exports and a 9% increase in imports, even with slower growth in the regional and world economy.
South America registered the biggest increase in exported value in 2021, 34%, benefiting from higher raw material prices. In the Caribbean, the increase in exports was due to the rise in oil and gas prices.
“The increase in exports of regional goods during 2021 is explained more by the increase in prices of basic products – especially minerals, oil, and agro-industrial products – than by the expansion of the exported volume. Likewise, regional exports of services have not yet recovered from the fall suffered as a result of the pandemic,” the report shows.
Uncertainties
The ECLAC report indicates several factors of uncertainty in world trade with consequences in the region, such as the uneven pace of vaccination and new strains of the virus; inflationary pressures and difficulty in maintaining fiscal stimulus; commercial tensions and risks in China’s real estate sector; and disruptions in supply chains and increased freight rates.
Source: Comex do Brasil
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