coffee prices

Conab lowers forecast for Brazil’s 2023 coffee crop on robusta drop

May, 18, 2023 Posted by Gabriel Malheiros

Week 202323

Brazil’s 2023 coffee crop is expected to reach 54.74 million 60-kg bags, government food and statistics agency Conab said on Thursday, slightly lowering its January forecast of 54.94 million bags due to a larger drop in robusta coffee production.

The total output, nonetheless, would still represent a 7.5% increase over the previous season, driven by higher arabica coffee production despite 2023 being an “off-year” in its biennial cycle that alternates years of high and low output.

Check below the chart of maritime shipments of coffee registered month by month in Brazil from January 2019 to March 2023. The data was obtained through Datamar’s DataLiner business intelligence service.

Coffee exports from Brazil | January 2019 – March 2023 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo) 

Arabica production, Conab said, is set to jump 15.9% this year to 37.93 million bags, recovering after drought and frost in 2021 negatively affected production last year in the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter.

“As weather conditions were better in 2022, we can now see a production recovery,” Conab’s head Edegar Pretto said in a statement.

Robusta coffee output in the South American country, on the other hand, is seen slipping 7.6% from its 2022 record to 16.81 million bags, as top producing state Espirito Santo faced adverse growing conditions this season, the agency said.

A downward revision in the robusta crop was the main reason for Conab’s total projection to have dropped from January, when it had forecast arabica and robusta production to reach 37.43 million and 17.51 million bags this year, respectively.

Conab also said it expects coffee prices to fall as harvest picks up in Brazil, but “not significantly” as low stock levels would still provide them with some support.

Source: Nasdaq with Reuters information 

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