Brazil could have higher trade surplus in 2023

Dec, 21, 2022 Posted by Sylvia Schandert

Week 202251

A projection released this Tuesday (20) by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB) indicated the country could have a more increased trade surplus next year, despite expected drops in imports and exports. AEB projects a positive trade balance of USD 71.9 billion for Brazil in 2023, 14.3% higher than USD 62.9 billion in 2022.

The number would result from exports of USD 325.1 billion and imports of USD 253.2 billion. Exports should slip less than imports, however, thus increasing the Brazilian trade balance surplus. AEB estimates a 2.3% drop in shipments from Brazil and a more significant reduction, 6.2%, in Brazilian purchases from abroad.

AEB calls the surplus negative, explaining it would be achieved with a double deficit without generating economic activity. “A balance of almost USD 72 billion is a historic Brazilian record, but it is only a surplus because the nominal drop of almost USD 17 billion in imports will be greater than that of exports, of over USD 7 billion,” said the chief executive of the AEB, José Augusto de Castro, in a release by the association.

Trade flow, the sum of imports and exports, is expected to reach USD 578.391 billion in 2023, dipping 4% to 2022 calculations. The world expects a deceleration in commodity prices next year, which could flatten trade rates.

“Many factors could hamper the results of the trade balance, such as interest rate hikes in the United States and the European Union; China’s internal issues slowing its economic growth; the war between Russia and Ukraine; and the determinations of the European Union import tariffs,” said Castro.

Source: ANBA

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