10% Tariff Threatens Brazilian Orange Juice Exports to the U.S.

A glass of orange juice (OJ) is a staple of the American breakfast table, with the average U.S. consumer drinking about 9 liters per year — compared to just 0.4 liters in Brazil. Remarkably, over half (53%) of that juice comes from Brazilian oranges, mostly grown in São Paulo and Minas Gerais, regardless of the brand name on the carton.

However, that dominance is now threatened by a 10% U.S. import tariff, which disadvantages Brazilian exports against Mexican competitors, who enjoy zero tariffs under the USMCA trade agreement. In contrast, Brazil’s juice is subject to the standard MFN (Most Favored Nation) rate unless changes occur.

The impact could be major: Brazil accounts for 64.7% of all U.S. orange juice imports, with Mexico following at 29.6%. Yet while 80% of Brazil’s orange crop is used for juice exports — making the country responsible for three-quarters of global exports, according to CitrusBR — 35.4% of export revenue comes from the U.S. alone.

Here is a historical overview of Brazil’s fruit juice exports starting from January 2021. The data is from DataLiner:

Brazilian Fruit Juice Exports | Brazil | Jan 2021 – Feb 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

One workaround could be “re-exportation” through Mexico, where up to 60% of a juice blend can come from third countries and still qualify under USMCA rules. Given its volume and availability, that 60% could easily be Brazilian juice.

Still, nothing is specific in the unpredictable climate of Trump-era trade policies. For now, that 10% tariff is enough to alert a multi-billion-dollar industry.

Source: InvestNews

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