A consultoria de grãos AgRural reduziu sua estimativa da safra de soja do Brasil para 116,9 milhões de toneladas, ante a previsão de 121,4 milhões de toneladas feita em novembro. Isto devido às condições de seca piores do que o esperado na faixa sul da soja no país. Na mesma linha, a corretora e analista INTL FCStone anunciou que haverá uma queda na produção de soja do país sul-americano há uma semana. De acordo com a AgRural o sul do Paraná será o mais atingido, perdendo até 2,5 milhões de toneladas de soja.

Maior exportador de soja do mundo, o Brasil registrou uma safra recorde de commodities no ano passado, com 119,3 milhões de toneladas. Além disso, o país enviou uma quantidade recorde de carga de soja para a China (consulte o gráfico abaixo para ver as tendências de exportação dos últimos 3 anos) depois de decidir evitar a importação de commodities agrícolas dos EUA como parte da disputa comercial entre as duas nações.

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Fontes usadas:

http://en.mercopress.com/2019/01/10/brazil-s-soybean-crop-forecast-cut-4.5m-tons-hot-spell-in-southern-states

Brazil’s soybean crop forecast cut 4.5m tons: hot spell in southern states

Brazil’s 2018/19 soybean crop forecast was cut to 116.9 million tons on Wednesday from 121.4 million tons late in November, said consultancy AgRural, blaming extreme heat and a dry spell in southern areas for the smaller projection.

Last week, broker and analyst INTL FCStone had announced a similar reduction on its estimates for Brazil soy output. Brazil, the world’s largest exporter, is in the initial stages of the harvest.

AgRural said that weather conditions in recent weeks have basically erased chances of another soy production record in Brazil, which reported its largest output on record last year at 119.3 million tons.

It sold a large part of that to China amid the trade dispute between China and the United States.

The consultancy projected yields to fall by 4% this year when compared with the previous crop, leading overall output to be smaller than last year even with an increase in planted area of 720,000 hectares.

AgRural said southern Paraná state was the hardest-hit by the heat and dry spell. It cut its projection for the state by 2.5 million tons.

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https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-soybeans-crops/update-1-brazil-soy-crop-view-cut-to-1169-mln-tonnes-amid-dry-spell-agrural-idUSL1N1Z91F2

UPDATE 1-Brazil soy crop view cut to 116.9 mln tonnes amid dry spell -AgRural

SAO PAULO, Jan 9 (Reuters) – Brazil’s 2018/19 soybean crop forecast was cut to 116.9 million tonnes on Wednesday from 121.4 million tonnes late in November, said consultancy AgRural, blaming extreme heat and a dry spell in southern areas for the smaller projection.

Last week, broker and analyst INTL FCStone had announced a similar reduction on its estimates for Brazil soy output. Brazil, the world’s largest exporter, is in the initial stages of the harvest.

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