Wheat Market Faces Price Drop and Rise in Imports, Says Itaú BBA

Brazil’s wheat market continues to operate at a slow pace during the off-season, with limited domestic trading and a heavy reliance on imports. According to the Agro Monthly report released by Itaú BBA’s Agro Consultancy, spot market prices declined in May and early June, while Argentine wheat gained a larger share of domestic mills, boosted by the appreciation of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar.

With mills already stocked and domestic supply limited, the average price in Paraná fell 2%, closing at R$78.62 per sack between early May and June 10. In Rio Grande do Sul, the drop was even steeper, at 4%, with the sack priced at R$70.04. Many producers are choosing to wait for more attractive prices before selling their remaining stock.

Argentine Wheat Gains Share in Brazilian Imports

During the off-season, Argentine wheat remained highly competitive compared to domestic supply, with lower CIF São Paulo prices in May and June. The depreciation of the dollar and the extension of export taxes (retenciones) helped maintain strong imports. From January to May 2025, Brazil imported 3 million tons of wheat—the highest volume for the period since 2007. Of that total, 72% originated from Argentina.

Here is a historical overview of Brazilian wheat imports starting from January 2022. The chart was created using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Imports of Wheat and Meslin | Jan 2022 – Apr 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Global Outlook: Weather and Geopolitical Tensions Drive Price Movements

On the international market, wheat prices continued to decline in May, with an average 2% drop on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), driven by strong production outlooks in the United States. However, in June, front-month contracts rebounded, closing at 543.75 cents per bushel on June 13, a 2% rise compared to the start of the month.

The rebound was driven by adverse weather conditions in producing countries, including frost in Russia and drought in China, as well as delayed harvesting in the U.S. due to rainfall. Tensions in the Middle East, a key wheat-importing region, also influenced global prices.

U.S. Harvest Advances, Brazil Begins Planting

In the U.S., the winter wheat harvest has begun but is running behind schedule, with only 4% of the crop harvested so far. Still, 54% of fields are rated as good or excellent, according to the USDA. For the spring wheat crop, the primary concern is low soil moisture—only 53% of fields are in good condition, compared to 72% at the same time last year.

In Brazil, attention is turning to the progress of planting. In Paraná, 78% of wheat fields have been sown, according to Deral, with crops in good condition and adequate pest control. Continued rainfall in the state is benefiting crop development. In Rio Grande do Sul, however, excessive rain is hindering progress, with only 8% of areas planted so far, according to Conab.

Planted Area Expected to Shrink in 2025/26 Season

Conab forecasts a 12.6% reduction in planted wheat area for the 2025/26 season compared to the previous cycle. Contributing factors include unfavorable input cost ratios—especially for fertilizers like urea and MAP, which are priced above 2022 levels—and losses from the last crop, particularly in Paraná.

In Paraná, planted area is expected to shrink by 23.7%. In Rio Grande do Sul, the decline is forecasted at 4.4%, with some fields shifting to other winter crops, such as canola. In addition to financial constraints, excessive rainfall remains the main barrier to planting progress in southern Brazil.

Source: Jornal do Vale

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