U.S.-China trade war could raise meat prices in Brazil

The trade war triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs against multiple countries—and China’s retaliation with 34% duties on American products—is expected to shake the global meat market. One major consequence, analysts told Valor, is an increase in Chinese demand for Brazilian meat, which could drive up domestic prices and fuel food inflation in Brazil.

Like Brazil, the United States exports beef, pork, and chicken to China. With American products now facing steep tariffs, Brazilian meat becomes more competitive.

According to Fernando Iglesias, an analyst at Safras & Mercado, Brazilian pork stands the best chance of replacing U.S. shipments to China, although beef and chicken could also gain market share. “Brazil was already expected to reach record exports of all three types of meat in 2025, and this market scenario makes that even more likely,” he said.

Amid the U.S.-China trade tensions, Safras projects a 7% increase in Brazilian pork exports this year, reaching up to 1.5 million tonnes. Chicken and beef exports are expected to rise by 5.24% and 2.29%, respectively, totaling 5.43 million tonnes of chicken and 4.28 million tonnes of beef.

However, the export surge is likely to affect prices at home. “With such a strong export flow, it’s very likely that meat will continue to push up inflation indicators in Brazil,” Mr. Iglesias noted.

Lygia Pimentel, director of the consultancy Agrifatto, believes the trade war could halt or severely restrict U.S. meat exports to China. “As Brazil is a major commodities supplier, the situation will certainly benefit us,” she said. The U.S. is currently China’s third-largest supplier of pork, behind Spain and Brazil.

Ms. Pimentel also expects increased demand from China to drive up consumer prices in the Brazilian market.

Asked about potential impacts, Ricardo Santin, president of the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA), said domestic chicken and pork prices would likely experience limited effects, given that producers could increase output.

“We had already projected higher growth in the domestic market than in exports. Now, we might see some adjustments. We won’t divert products from the domestic market to export. Instead, we can adopt other strategies, such as increasing supply or animal weight,” said Mr. Santin, who represents Brazil’s chicken and pork industries.

According to him, the tariff dispute is expected to prompt shifts in global meat trade. With Chinese tariffs in place, the U.S. may look for new buyers, while Brazilian exporters may prioritize China if it becomes more attractive than other markets. This shift is expected to intensify in the second half of the year, as contracts for the coming months are already finalized.

Below is a history of Brazilian meat exports over the past five years. The data is from DataLiner:

Brazilian Meat Exports | Jan 2021 – Jan 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

In addition to trade realignments, higher international meat prices are another likely consequence of the tariffs, Mr. Santin added.

João Figueiredo, an analyst at Datagro Pecuária, pointed out that meat prices were already high in the U.S. domestic market—and “they’re likely to rise even further now.”

The reciprocal tariffs announced last Wednesday by the Trump administration impose a minimum surcharge on nearly all of the U.S.’s trading partners: 10% for Brazil, 34% for China, and 20% for the European Union.

China responded by slapping a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports. According to the Tariff Commission of the State Council, the measure will take effect on Thursday (10).

As part of its retaliation, China also suspended poultry imports from two U.S. companies—Mountaire Farms of Delaware, Inc. and Coastal Processing, LLC—citing consumer health concerns after detecting traces of furazolidone, a banned drug, in chicken products on several occasions, according to a statement by China’s General Administration of Customs.

Beijing also halted imports of chicken-based products and meat and bone meal from American Proteins Inc., Mountaire Farms, and Darling Ingredients Inc. In addition, the Chinese government revoked the export license of C&D (USA) Inc. for shipments of sorghum to China.

Source: Valor International

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