Trump’s Tariff Hike Boosts Revenues for Agribusiness Companies in Brazil

U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed his broad tariff hikes in early April, but the trade war had already begun taking shape throughout the first quarter. As a result, its effects were evident in the Q1 financial statements of Brazilian agribusiness companies.

According to analysts interviewed by Valor, the initial impact was the sharp rise in the dollar, which in turn helped drive up export revenues for these companies. The average exchange rate for the U.S. dollar during the period was BRL 5.70, according to Valor Data, representing a 13.77% increase from the first quarter of 2024, when the average was BRL 5.01.

Amid Brazil’s peak grain harvest season, the trade war also led to higher export premiums for soybeans and an acceleration of purchases by China. The impact, however, was limited due to the large volume of soybeans that had already been sold in advance.

Revenue Growth

A survey by Valor Data shows that out of 20 agribusiness companies that released financial results for Q1 2025, 17 reported an increase in net revenue. Only Heringer, Kepler Weber, and Josapar saw declines.

“I believe the trade war is the main reason behind the strong revenues, even though in some cases profits declined compared to last year,” said Gabriel Hartt, agribusiness analyst at Terra Investimentos.

Boost for Meatpackers

According to Hartt, the exchange rate movement particularly benefited companies in the animal protein sector. Based on Valor Data’s analysis, all major meatpackers saw higher revenues in Q1. The standout performer was Minerva, with a 55.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Minerva even accelerated its beef shipments to the U.S. under the duty-free quota as early as January, anticipating the tariff hike later confirmed by the U.S. government.

Below is a historical overview of Brazilian beef exports to the United States. The chart was created using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Beef Exports to the United States | Jan 2022 – Apr 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

“With the change implemented by President Trump, the duty rose to around 36%, so maximizing volume within the quota made a difference—and that’s exactly what we did,” said Minerva’s CFO and Head of Investor Relations, Edison Ticle, in May, when commenting on the company’s Q1 results.

In early April, Trump announced tariff hikes targeting multiple countries. For Brazil, a 10% import duty was imposed. This came on top of the existing 26.5% tariff on beef exports outside the quota, bringing the total to 36.5%.

Advantage for Exporters

In the grain segment, Gabriel Barra, an analyst at Citi, highlighted companies like SLC Agrícola—grain producers and exporters—as strong performers in the quarter.

“They benefited from improved soybean productivity due to more favorable weather, which led to lower unit costs and higher output. Combined with relatively stable prices and a stronger dollar, this resulted in better year-over-year results,” said Barra.

According to the Citi analyst, “We’re beginning to see the trade war’s effects, such as higher port premiums for Brazilian soybeans, which has contributed to producer margins.”

Barra believes that in the coming months, companies involved in grain exports and sugar and ethanol production should continue benefiting from the stronger dollar and favorable weather conditions.

“However, we expect international prices for agricultural commodities such as sugar, soybeans, corn, and others to decline, offsetting some of the gains from the currency. Still, it’s important to note that many exporters have already locked in prices for a significant portion of their 2025 sales,” he added.

Profits and Margins

While the stronger dollar favored exporters, it also raised costs for input suppliers, Terra Investimentos’ analyst noted. This helps explain why not all companies reported profit growth in the first quarter.

Examining margins and profits, the performance of agribusiness companies didn’t always align with revenue growth. According to Valor Data, ten out of the 20 companies analyzed posted net profits—once again, with meatpackers standing out.

“Marfrig’s performance in Brazil was particularly noteworthy, and the poultry segment also performed well, both for Seara and BRF,” noted Guilherme Palhares, an analyst at Santander.

Source: Globo Rural

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