Escalating trade war boosts Brazil’s soybean sales

Brazil’s soybean exports have taken a sudden shift for the better in recent days as demand from China has increased in light of the unresolved Washington Beijing trade war. Increased demand has boosted port premiums and prices and corresponds with the US dollar hitting the highest point against the Brazilian Real in more than seven months, sitting just above R$4.

#SOJA: Cotações têm forte alta no Brasil e nos EUA – https://t.co/fF2Kc98EA9 #soja #agronegócio #Cepea
Foto: Mauro Osaki/Cepea pic.twitter.com/IMlJiSWHCO

— Cepea (@CepeaEsalq) May 20, 2019

Brazilian farmers have traded an estimated 5.5m tons of soybeans for shipment in June, July, and August over recent days, according to the Center for Studies in Advanced Applied Economics (Cepea). Last week on Thursday alone, Brazil negotiated the sale of 700,000 tons of soybeans, half from Mato Grosso according to T&F Consultoria.

DatamarNews reported China reduced soybean imports from Brazil by 13% to 20.07m tons in the first four months of 2019, from 23.08m tons shipped in the same period last year. In spite of the recent surge in sales, China’s soy demand is expected to plateau as the country deals with one of the country’s worst outbreaks of African swine fever.

According to a recent Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association’s (Abiove) estimate, Brazil’s soybean exports are forecast to fall by 18.5% to 68.1m tons in 2019, compared to record shipments in 2018, DatamarNews reported.

The following DataLiner graph shows Brazil’s soybean export trend to China versus the rest of the world:

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