Maersk revises its outlook upwards yet again

Seven months ago, Maersk CEO Soren Skou touted Q4 2020 as “the best quarter ever.” Announcing the initial outlook for this year on Feb. 10, he said the best-case scenario “would basically mean to perform at four times the rate of the fourth quarter.”  That outlook, however, has long since been surpassed. On Thursday, Maersk revised its numbers skyward yet again.

The second half is now looking even more profitable for ocean carriers — and more ominous for cargo shippers — than the first. But the second half may not be the peak: A new forecast from Deutsche Bank argues that container shipping has entered a “super cycle” and ocean carriers will actually rake in more money in 2022 than they will this year.

According to Stifel analyst Ben Nolan, “Container craziness should abate, although we expect not until sometime later next year or perhaps even in 2023.”

Maersk upgrades EBITDA…again

In February, Maersk announced full-year forecast of its EBITDA of US$8.5 billion-10.5 billion. The high end of the range was roughly quadruple Q4 2020 EBITDA of US$2.7 billion.

After the first quarter came in better than the fourth, Maersk upgraded its 2021 guidance to US$13 billion-15 billion. By early August, it was clear that the third quarter would be better than the second, thus another upgrade, to $18 billion-$19.5 billion.

Source: Freight Waves

To read the full original article, visit the link:

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-high-can-container-shipping-profits-go-will-2022-top-2021

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