Machinery sales rebound after 28-month decline, association says

The association expects that, in the coming months, revenue will continue to show positive annual variation, potentially leading to a single-digit decline for the year, compared to the current 11.3%. The association estimates a 7% decrease for the year.

ABIMAQ attributes October’s results to improvements in both domestic sales and exports. However, the sector remains in the red for the year. Over the first ten months, total revenue reached R$225.5 billion, a decrease of 11% compared to the same period in 2023.

Cristina Zanella, ABIMAQ’s director of competitiveness, economy, and statistics, identified three factors explaining October’s performance, besides comparing with a low base from the last quarter of 2023.

“There was robust growth in exports, above the monthly average. Domestic sales of machinery for consumer goods increased, driven by improved household income, lower unemployment, and government income improvement programs. The third event was the increase in domestic sales of construction machinery,” she stated.

For 2025, ABIMAQ forecasts a 3.7% growth in total net revenue. “This is an optimistic estimate, given the recent rise in interest rates beyond previous expectations,” the director noted.

Domestic net revenue confirms the strong performance of the local market. In October, it reached R$18.4 billion, a 6.5% increase from the same month last year and a 12% rise compared to September. In the first ten months of the year, it amounts to R$166.3 billion, a 12.9% decline. ABIMAQ maintains a projection of an 8.8% decline by the end of 2024.

Apparent consumption (the sum of total domestic production with imports, excluding exports) totaled R$34.7 billion last month, a 21.6% increase year-on-year and a 10.1% rise over September. Despite October’s results, the annual total reaches R$305.2 billion, still down by 2.8%. According to ABIMAQ, reduced agribusiness investments impact apparent consumption in 2024.

Another highlight is the share of imports in apparent consumption. Currently, imports account for 45% of the indicator, compared to 29% in 2013.

Foreign trade

Exports of machinery and equipment in October amounted to $1.4 billion, a 0.6% decrease year-on-year but an 8.2% increase compared to September. It was the sector’s best monthly result in 2024. For the year, shipments total $11 billion, a 7% reduction compared to 2023. ABIMAQ forecasts a 3% to 3.5% decline for the year.