Economy

July data: imports fight back; exports gain strength

Aug, 31, 2020 Posted by datamarnews

Week 202036

July data from DataLiner, which will be released today, shows that imports into the East Coast of South America rallied when compared to the previous months. They are still severely down compared to the last two years but have recovered in line with expected seasonal volumes. Exports in the meantime have surged further, going from strength to strength.

The chart below shows cargo imports from the East Coast of South America for the first seven months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2018 and 2019:

Imports into the East Coast of South America | Jan to July 2018-2020 (TEU)


Source: DataLiner

In the graph, it is possible to see that until February 2020, imports maintained a good level, outpacing the same months in 2019. As of April, however, when the impact of the quarantine due to the pandemic began to be felt in earnest, they plummeted, reaching the lowest level in June.  A recovery has been seen in July, with imports growing 23.3% in relation to the previous month. Even so, the volume is 29.5% lower than in July 2019.

 

Economic Analysis

2020 GDP forecasts for Brazil have continued to improve in the meantime. Currently, the forecast is for a recession of 5.28%. Back in July, the forecast stood at a 6.5% recession.

The graph below shows the cumulative result for Brazilian imports in the first seven months of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 and 2018.

 

Imports into the East Coast of South America | Jan to July 2018-2020 (TEU)


Source: DataLiner

The cumulative total in the above graph for January to July 2020, shows a 10.46% fall in imports compared with the same period in 2019 and 15.83% in relation to 2018 in TEU.

 

2020 Forecast GDP Growth for Brazil

Source: Statista

 

Commodities Analysis

Many of the most affected imports into the East Coast of South America’s saw numbers bounce back in July after what appears to have been the low point in June, as can be seen in the table below. August numbers are also expected to rise following a very limited number of blank sailings during that month according to Datamar databases.

 

Ranking of the most imported goods in July 2020

wdt_ID Commodity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul May-Jun Change Jun-Jul Change
1 39 - Plastics and Articles Thereof 33.498 30.426 31.184 33.573 26.626 20.570 23.317 -6.055 2.747
2 84 - Nuclear Reactors and Mechanical Appliances 31.800 26.172 22.624 26.952 23.180 17.771 22.048 -5.408 4.276
3 85 - Electrical Machinery and Equipment and Parts Thereof 24.008 22.829 17.782 20.253 16.532 10.963 15.476 -5.569 4.513
4 29 - Organic Chemicals 12.761 11.602 11.119 14.307 13.158 11.666 13.021 -1.492 1.355
5 87 - Vehicles Other Than Railway or Tramway Rolling-Stock 29.297 23.870 27.321 27.581 14.634 9.763 11.493 -4.870 1.730
6 38 - Miscellaneous Chemical Products 6.762 5.983 5.702 5.988 6.989 7.187 8.400 198 1.213
7 40 - Rubber and Articles Thereof 10.865 10.098 9.594 9.714 7.626 4.250 6.690 -3.375 2.439
8 31 - Fertilisers 5.034 4.931 4.235 6.772 6.666 6.813 6.045 147 -769
9 28 - Inorganic Chemicals 5.795 5.537 5.086 6.296 5.598 5.342 5.116 -256 -226
10 48 - Paper and Paperboard 7.075 6.704 6.249 7.014 5.980 4.443 4.503 -1.537 60

Source: DataLiner
(To request a Dataliner demo click here)

 

 

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