Imports of Chinese Goods Hit Record from January to May Amid Global Trade War

China’s exports to Brazil reached USD 29.5 billion from January to May 2025 — the highest figure since records began in 1997 — amid the ongoing global tariff war launched by former U.S. president Donald Trump. However, experts note that Brazil’s surge in Chinese imports goes beyond the effects of the global dispute.

According to data from Brazil’s Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), total Brazilian imports grew 9.22% year-over-year in the first five months of 2025, totaling USD 112.5 billion. Imports from China showed the most significant rise, jumping 26.5%. In contrast, imports from other key partners increased by far less: the United States (+9.9%) and the European Union (+4%), while Mercosur imports fell by 1.8% over the same period.

While the increase in Chinese imports initially supports the narrative that China is redirecting exports to alternative markets amid U.S. trade restrictions, experts argue that this trend is still in its early stages. So far, the spike reflects strong domestic economic activity in Brazil.

A key transaction contributing to the rise was Brazil’s purchase of a Chinese oil platform in February, valued at approximately USD 2.7 billion, which significantly impacted the trade figures for the period.

According to Matheus Pizzani, an economist at CM Capital who tracks Brazil’s trade balance, the early part of 2025 saw a surge in imports of capital goods — machinery and equipment used in production. Final goods, such as cars, appliances, and electronics, began to rise only in April, possibly indicating the early effects of the U.S.-China tariff dispute.
“The continuation of this trend will depend on the strength of Brazil’s domestic economy. These final goods are not essential items; demand for them depends directly on consumer confidence and economic activity,” said Pizzani.

Agribusiness Drives Demand for Chinese Inputs
In addition to strong domestic demand, Gabriela Faria, an economist at Tendências Consultoria, noted that Brazil’s robust agribusiness sector also played a significant role, driving imports of inputs such as fertilizers. “The soybean harvest was excellent and profitable for producers, allowing them to prepare for further investments,” she explained.

Commodity Price Drops and High-Value Chinese Exports
José Augusto de Castro, president of Brazil’s Foreign Trade Association (AEB), noted that the recent decline in commodity prices has lowered the cost of many Chinese-manufactured goods, favoring increased production and exports — a trend that predates Trump’s new tariffs.

“Trump’s measures merely solidified an expected scenario,” said Castro.

He also emphasized China’s strategic focus on higher value-added products, which helps inflate the overall value of Brazilian imports. “Naturally, more products once bound for the U.S. will now come to Brazil. We can’t replace the U.S. market — ours is much smaller — but we will absorb part of that redirected output,” he stated.

Tariffs and Platform Commerce Fuel Redirection
Michel Platini, president of the Brazilian Association of Importers (Abimp), believes that many of the Chinese products now arriving in Brazil were diverted from the U.S. market following the escalation in tariffs.

He explained that low production costs in China early in the year boosted output, just as the U.S. imposed tariffs exceeding 100% on certain goods. “That production was already underway, but one of the main markets (the U.S.) was virtually closed, prompting a redirection,” said Platini.

He added that this scenario boosted an already strong trend of Brazilian consumers purchasing Chinese goods — particularly textiles, household items, and bazaar products — via platforms like Mercado Livre, Amazon, and Temu. The increase, however, was somewhat curbed by an ongoing customs officers’ strike in Brazil, which has affected clearance operations since November last year.

Source: Estadão

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