Early GRI and Vessel Diversions Drive Up Logistics Costs

Maritime freight rates in Brazil have surged in recent weeks amid a growing shortage of vessels and containers available for the country. The main reason, according to Andrew Lorimer, CEO of Datamar, is the redirection of ships to the China–U.S. trade lane following the announcement of a 90-day tariff truce between the two economic powers.

“We’re seeing freight rates on the Asia–Brazil route increase by more than 100% in just one week, now reaching around US$3,300 per container. And the trend points to further hikes,” Lorimer said. He explained that carriers have anticipated the application of the General Rate Increase (GRI), which usually occurs between July and September when Brazilian importers restock for the Christmas season. “This time, the adjustment came earlier, driven by global pressure on logistics capacity,” he added.

As U.S. retailers prepare for Black Friday and the holiday season, American shippers have been reallocating vessels from other routes, including South America, to serve the high-demand Asia–U.S. corridor. This diversion has reduced the availability of space for shipments to and from Brazil.

Lorimer also warned of increasing container shortages in Brazil, which could negatively impact both imports and exports. “The lack of equipment could create logistical bottlenecks, particularly for goods that rely on refrigerated transport,” he cautioned.

According to Datamar data, containerized imports to Brazil totaled 1.136 million TEUs between January and April 2025, representing a 10.7% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Despite the growth, Lorimer noted that it remains unclear whether this increase is directly related to the new U.S. tariffs on China. However, signs of a global realignment are already emerging.

Another factor contributing to global logistical imbalances, Lorimer pointed out, is the lack of a tariff agreement between the United States and the European Union. This has led to congestion at European ports, exacerbated by low river levels, labor shortages, and overloaded terminals. “All of this adds more uncertainty and further pressures global freight rates,” he said.

While the 90-day tariff truce has created a window for supply chain reorganization, the outlook beyond that period remains uncertain. “New trade agreements may bring some stability, but there’s also a risk of further disruptions,” Lorimer concluded.

Content-based on a report by Valor Econômico

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