Drought and fires cut 11 million tonnes from Brazil’s sugarcane crop

Extended drought, high temperatures, and widespread fires in sugarcane fields during August and September have led Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) to reduce its sugarcane harvest forecast for the 2024/25 season by 11 million tonnes. CONAB’s third report of the season now projects a total harvest of 678.67 million tonnes.

Although this figure represents a 4.8% decline from the previous season (a decrease of 34.5 million tonnes), it would still mark the second-largest sugarcane harvest in Brazil’s history if confirmed.

The decline is concentrated in the states of São Paulo and Paraná, where combined losses are expected to reach 40.2 million tonnes. However, national losses are offset by increased production in states like Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Pernambuco.

Even in regions where production is set to rise, productivity has been affected by adverse weather conditions. CONAB estimates that average national productivity will drop 8.8% this season, to 78 tonnes per hectare.

São Paulo, the state most affected by the fires during the transition from winter to spring, is expected to see productivity fall by 14.5% to 80.1 tonnes per hectare, down from CONAB’s August estimate of 82.7 tonnes per hectare. CONAB also reduced its forecast for the harvested area in São Paulo by 254,000 hectares.

Despite these declines, it is worth noting that last season’s productivity was a record high, providing a challenging basis for comparison. According to CONAB, this season’s productivity is still expected to be the second-highest in the past decade. “Even with severe losses caused by climatic factors, some regions benefited from sufficient rainfall,” CONAB stated in its report.

The reduced sugarcane harvest has prompted CONAB to lower its sugar production estimate by 2 million tonnes compared to its August projection, now forecasting 44 million tonnes. This figure is 3.7% below the 2023/24 season, a drop of 1.7 million tonnes. Nevertheless, it would still rank as the second-largest sugar production in Brazil’s history.

The chart below reveals the progress of Brazil’s sugar exports in containers between January 2021 and September 2024. The data is from DataLiner.

Sugar Exports in Containers | Jan 2021 – Sep 2024 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The challenges for sugar production were compounded by crop diseases such as stem wilt, which reduces juice purity and makes sugarcane more susceptible to other diseases. These difficulties in crystallizing sugar led mills to divert more raw material toward ethanol production throughout the season.

As a result, CONAB has increased its ethanol production forecast from sugarcane by 1.4%, estimating 28.9 billion liters—a figure 2.8% lower than the previous season.

However, with the growing supply of corn ethanol, total ethanol production is expected to remain close to last year’s levels. CONAB forecasts ethanol production from corn to reach 7.2 billion liters this season, contributing to a total biofuel output of 36.1 billion liters for the 2024/25 cycle—an increase of approximately 473 million liters year-over-year.

By Fernanda Pressinott e Camila Souza Ramos , Globo Rural

Source: Valor International

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