Commodity Price Drop and Oil Platform Imports Push Brazil’s Trade Balance into Deficit

Falling commodity prices and a surge in oil platform imports weighed on Brazil’s trade balance in February, leading to a monthly deficit of $323.7 million.

This was the country’s first monthly trade deficit (exports minus imports) since January 2022, when the balance was negative by $59.1 million. It also marked the worst February result in the historical series, which began in 1989. In February 2024, the trade balance had posted a $5.13 billion surplus.

Despite the negative result, Brazil maintained a trade surplus of $1.934 billion for the first two months of the year. However, this figure represents an 82.9% drop compared to the same period in 2024. It is also the lowest year-to-date surplus since the first two months of 2021, when the balance stood at $1.616 billion.

The monthly trade deficit was driven by a decline in exports and a sharp rise in imports, mainly due to a $2.7 billion oil platform purchase. Brazil’s exports in February totaled $22.929 billion, down 1.8% from the same month in 2024, while imports soared 27.6% to $23.253 billion.

On the export side, lower international prices for iron ore, oil, soybeans, and sugar were the primary drivers of the decline. However, higher export volumes of coffee, pulp, and beef partially offset the overall drop.

Imports, meanwhile, were dominated by oil platform acquisitions, which amounted to $2.675 billion in February—compared to just $16.39 million in the same month last year. Purchases of engines and vehicles also increased. Excluding the oil platform import, total imports for the month would have stood at $20.6 billion, roughly in line with historical trends.

In terms of trade volume, the amount of goods exported rose 1.4%, led by fuel, sugar, and vehicles, but average prices dropped 3.6% compared to February 2024. On the import side, volumes jumped 20.2%, while average prices declined 6.1%, indicating that increased foreign purchases were driven by Brazil’s economic recovery and the concentration of oil platform imports.

Sector Breakdown

The agricultural sector saw a slight recovery, with export volumes down 0.8% in February compared to the same month in 2024, while average prices increased by 2%.

In the extractive industry—covering minerals and crude oil—export volumes fell 11.7%, and average prices declined 17.8%. The manufacturing industry was the exception, posting a 7% increase in export volume and a 0.8% rise in average prices.

Trade Balance Forecasts

In January, Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services released its 2025 trade balance projections. The government expects a trade surplus between $60 billion and $80 billion, with exports ranging from $320 billion to $360 billion and imports between $260 billion and $280 billion. Traditionally, the ministry releases annual trade forecasts in April, with updates in July and October.

The Focus Bulletin, a weekly survey of market analysts published by the Central Bank, projects a trade surplus of $76.8 billion for 2025. In 2024, Brazil recorded a trade surplus of $74.176 billion, with exports totaling $337.046 billion and imports reaching $262.869 billion.

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