Chinese exports to Brazil reach a record US$ 29.5 billion from January to May

Chinese exports to Brazil reached US$ 29.5 billion from January to May, a record in the historical series that began in 1997, amid the tariff war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. However, according to experts, Brazil’s case is also linked to factors beyond the global trade dispute.

In the first five months of 2025, Brazilian imports, in general, increased by 9.22% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching US$112.5 billion, according to the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex).

However, purchases of products from China grew the most, with a 26.5% increase. Imports from other trade partners, such as the United States (9.9%) and the European Union (4%), grew significantly less, while imports from Mercosur countries fell by 1.8%.

At first glance, the growth in imports of Chinese products supports the expectation that the Asian country would need to flood other markets with its products to compensate for the decline in export volume to the United States, with whom it has been engaged in a tariff war since February.

Here is a historical overview of Brazilian containerized imports from China starting in January 2022. The chart was created using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Imports from China | Jan 2022 – Apr 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Experts, however, point out that the effect of the redirection of Chinese production, although starting to become visible, is still not very significant and is expected to gain momentum throughout the year. For now, they say the expansion mainly reflects factors such as heated domestic economic activity.

Additionally, a US$2.7 billion oil platform was purchased from China in February, which helped increase the trade volume between the two countries during the period.

Economist Matheus Pizzani, from brokerage firm CM Capital, who monitors Brazil’s trade balance data monthly, notes that at the beginning of the year, the increase in Chinese imports into Brazil was driven by so-called capital goods – machinery and equipment used by companies to produce other goods and services.

Final goods, such as automobiles, home appliances, and electronics, only began to show growth in April. According to him, this movement may reflect “to some extent” the effect of the tariff war and the friction between China and the United States. The steel and aluminum surcharge took effect on March 12, while the one on automobiles took effect on April 3.

Pizzani emphasizes that the continued growth in imports of final goods will depend on the state of the domestic economy. “These are goods that, ultimately, are not essential. The demand for them depends directly on the level of economic activity and people’s confidence in purchasing them,” he stresses.

The increase in Brazilian imports of Chinese products, which reached a record in the first five months of the year, should be attributed not only to heightened domestic activity but also to the strong performance of the agricultural sector. The bumper crop drives demand for items such as fertilizers, notes economist Gabriela Faria from Tendências Consultoria. “The soybean harvest was very good and positively remunerated producers. They were able to prepare to make new investments,” she says.

The president of the Foreign Trade Chamber Association (AEB), José Augusto de Castro, highlights that the recent drop in commodity prices has reduced the cost of many goods manufactured in China, which has favored production and, consequently, exports to Brazil. “It was a scenario that preceded the tariff hike promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump’s measures merely consolidated a trend that was already expected,” he points out.

Castro also notes that China has focused on higher-value-added products, which helps boost the value of Brazil’s imports. “Inevitably, more products that they would have sold to Americans will arrive here. Of course, Brazil cannot replace the United States, as our market is much smaller, but we will absorb some of it,” he assesses.

Trump began a trade war with China, imposing tariffs to pressure changes in trade practices. China retaliated, affecting American products. The confrontation disrupted global markets and supply chains. The president of the Brazilian Association of Importers (Abimp), Michel Platini, believes that part of the Chinese products now arriving in Brazil only entered the country due to the closure of the U.S. market amid the tariff escalation.

Platini explains that production costs were low in China at the beginning of the year, which increased output, while the United States announced tariffs over 100% on the Asian country. “The investment in this production had already been made, but a key market (the U.S.) was practically closed, so there was a need to redirect output,” he says

This scenario, Platini adds, “gave momentum” to an already well-established movement among Brazilian consumers to buy items from the textile, homeware, and variety segments from China through online commerce platforms such as Mercado Livre, Amazon, and Temu.

He adds that the increase in the entry of these items into Brazil was only not stronger due to the strike movement by Federal Revenue Service employees at customs terminals, which has been ongoing since last November.

Source: O Sul

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