China leads decline in trade balance surplus, says ICOMEX

The agreement signed on June 10 between China and the United States eased trade tariffs. Still, it did not dispel global uncertainties, according to data from the Foreign Trade Indicator (ICOMEX), published by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV IBRE). Tariffs of 125% and 145% were reduced to 10% and 55%, respectively, but the U.S. president emphasized that this is merely a truce. The deadline for other partners to negotiate agreements with the U.S. ends in July.

In addition to tariffs, the scenario included China’s threats to restrict rare earth exports and, on the U.S. side, the potential revocation of visas for Chinese students in the United States. Tensions escalated with the conflict between Israel and Iran, thereby heightening geopolitical risks.

In Brazil’s case, concern centers around the 10% tariff on imports and 50% on steel and aluminum products. Reversal will depend on bilateral negotiations and pressure from American industry.

According to ICOMEX, Brazilian exports to the U.S. grew by 1.2% through May, while exports to China dropped by 0.3%. The cumulative trade balance registered a surplus of USD 24.4 billion — a significant drop from the USD 35.2 billion recorded in the same period of 2024.

Check below a historical overview of container movement between Brazil and the United States starting from January 2022. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Container Throughput between Brazil and the United States | Jan 2022 – Apr 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Below, you can also see the evolution of Brazilian container exports to China in the chart also created using DataLiner resources:

Exports to China | Jan 2022 – Apr 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Commodity exports declined, while non-commodity exports increased, with automobiles standing out. The manufacturing industry accounted for 94% of Brazilian imports. Key items included fertilizers, fuels, and vehicles.

The drop in the surplus was led by the reduction in the balance with China, from USD 18.6 billion to USD 8.3 billion. Argentina and the European Union recorded a positive balance in the same period.

Source: Diplomacia Business

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