China increases pork imports as stocks run low

Data released by Chinese customs authorities on Wednesday, September 23, indicates that pork imports by the Asian country in August doubled to 350,000 tons year-on-year, with the country seeking to replenish its stocks. Despite this, imports decreased in comparison with July, when 430,000 tons of protein were imported. The decline is a result of the coronavirus outbreak in exporting and importing countries, reducing the number of units that are able to send the product to China.

Although China’s level of frozen pork reserves is a state secret, experts believe that China has practically depleted its reserves, which highlights the scarcity of supply in the world’s largest protein market two years after the arrival of the African swine fever virus in the country.

China is the global leader in pork production, consumption, and imports. But London-based consulting firm Enodo Economics estimates that the volume has decreased by about 452,000 tons between September 2019 and August this year.

According to Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics, the country currently has less than 100,000 tons of pork reserves. “At this rate, in two to three months they won’t have any left,” she added.

The figures corroborate a statement by an American agricultural representative in Beijing in a recent report on China’s pork segment, which stated “most of the pork reserves appear to have been consumed in the third quarter of 2020”.

The country registered its first case of African swine fever in 2018. Since then, it has lost more than 100 million pigs, raising domestic prices to new historical levels. The Chinese government responded by selling frozen meat from its reserves on the domestic market to try to control prices.

See the chart below for the history of Brazilian pork exports to China and the rest of the world:

Brazilian pork exports (HS 0203) to China vs. the World | Jan 2019 to July 2020 | TEU

Graph source: DataLiner (To request a demo of DaraLiner click here)

African swine flu in Germany

In addition to China, Germany is also suffering from African swine flu. There have already been 29 cases of the disease in wild boars since the first case was registered in the country on September 10. With the discovery of these cases, China and other importers vetoed pork from Germany. Last year, China was the main destination for German pork exports outside the European Union.

Sources: Reuters and Valor Econômico

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