Grains

Brazil’s April soybean shipments could hit 4-year low

Apr, 11, 2019 Posted by datamarnews

Week 201916

Rather than picking up in April, Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to end the month at a four year low, based on government figures for the beginning of April, ship lineup data for the month and industry source estimates, according to Reuters.

William’s shipping schedules between April 10 and April 29 show Brazil should export about 5.8m tons in this period, which when combined with the 3m tons shipped to April 5 according to the government, brings the expected total to 8.8m tons this month.

It gets even more interesting as grain trader AgriBrasil estimates Brazil’s soybean shipment to reach around 9.5m tons in April. On the contrary, grain exporters association Anec forecasts 6.9m tons for the whole of April, basing its estimates on data showing farmers exported 2.1m tons of soybeans in the first week of April. This would be the lowest the South American giant has exported since April 2015, at 6.5m tons of soybeans.

DatamarNews reported a fall in port premiums had led Brazil’s soybean farmers to practically hoard their harvest, raising the fear of a storage shortage for the country’s coming winter corn.  Brazilian soy growers are also at the mercy of the yet unknown size of the US yield this season and the fact the US also has plenty of stock to spare following the China-US trade war. The uncertainties involving how the trade war might end are affecting not only Brazil’s soy prospects but also Argentina’s.

The following Secex graph shows Brazil’s April soybean export data for the last ten years:

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