Anec Estimates Drop in Brazil’s Soybean Exports in May

Brazil’s soybean exports in May are estimated at 12.6 million tonnes, compared to 13.47 million tonnes in the same month last year, according to data from the National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec).

The association’s report also shows a decline from April shipments, which totaled 13.5 million tonnes and were practically stable compared to the same month of the previous year.

The projection for May ranges between 11.7 million and 13.5 million tonnes, with an average of 12.6 million tonnes used for calculations. China remains the main destination for Brazilian exports, absorbing 75% of total soybeans shipped through April 2025.

According to the National Supply Company (Conab), by the first week of May, the soybean harvest in Brazil had reached 97.7%, surpassing the five-year average for the same period, which stands at 96.3%. With the harvest ending, freight prices are expected to fall until the second-crop corn harvest begins.

As of April, the country had already exported 40.05 million tonnes, a 2.6% increase over the 39.01 million tonnes shipped in 2024. This growth reflects the greater availability of soybeans in the 2024/25 crop, driven by the progress of the harvest.

For soybean meal, Anec’s May projection indicates exports of 1.88 million tonnes, a 4.5% decline from the 1.97 million tonnes recorded in May 2024. Shipments totaled 2.21 million tonnes in April, 5.4% higher than the 2.097 million tonnes exported in April 2024.

Corn exports remain at residual levels, with no projections for May listed in Anec’s tables. In April, shipments totaled 48.3 thousand tonnes, 37% lower than in 2024 (76.6 thousand tonnes).

Wheat exports recorded a sharp drop, with 51.8 thousand tonnes exported in April, down 60% compared to the 129.6 thousand tonnes exported in April 2024. Anec does not provide a forecast for wheat shipments in May.

The port line-up for the week of May 4 to 10 anticipates soybean shipments of 3.51 million tonnes. The Port of Santos leads at 1.13 million tonnes scheduled, followed by Paranaguá (384 thousand t) and São Francisco do Sul (281 thousand tonnes). In the previous week (April 27 to May 3), shipments totaled 3.79 million tonnes. For soybean meal, the line-up from May 4 to 10 is 693 thousand tonnes, an increase compared to 522 thousand tonnes in the previous week.

Anec projects total soybean exports of up to 110 million tonnes in 2025. However, logistics could be a limiting factor, with the export window potentially extending into early 2026—a scenario similar to what occurred after the record 2023 harvest. China remains the leading destination for Brazilian soybeans, absorbing 75% of the total shipped through April.

Source: Portal DBO

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